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Solar Energy Forecasting

Real-time generation forecasts for single PV systems, utility scale solar plants, and entire networks over the next hour, day, and week

What is Solar Energy Forecasting?

Solar energy forecasting involves combining several input data sources to calculate the potential solar irradiance at a specific location over the next hour (intra-hour), day (intra-day), and week (intra-week).

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The Proa Forecasting System (PFS) can calculate custom solar forecasts for:

  • single PV systems,  

  • utility scale solar plants, 

  • entire networks, states, or countries. 

To assist with planning or feasibility studies, we can also provide historical and typical generation estimates at any location in Australia, using 30 years of irradiance data.

How does Solar Energy Forecasting work?

The Proa Forecasting System (PFS) can calculate forecasts at three different forecast horizons:

  • intra-hour: 60 minutes with 30-second resolution, 

  • intra-day: 3 days with 5-minute resolution, 

  • intra-week: 7 days with 5-minute resolution.  

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The PFS calculates an optimal solar irradiance forecast by integrating multiple input data streams depending on the forecast horizon, 

  • Live PV system data (intra-hour), 

  • Skycam images to track cloud motion (intra-hour), 

  • Satellite images to track cloud motion (intra-hour, -day), 

  • Numerical Weather Predictions (intra-hour, -day, -week). 

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The optimal solar irradiance forecast is fed into a detailed model (digital twin) of the PV system to produce an estimate of the power output. For DER forecasts, Proa uses high-compute algorithms to calculate the output of thousands of sample solar systems distributed across the network, combined with validated upscaling and statistical methods to estimate the generation of all the rooftop PV system on the network.

Solar energy forecasts are delivered using our secure API data feed or via SFTP.  

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